Commodities:  Oil & Oilseeds Feed & Meal Grains Pulses Spices Sugar & Gur Fibre Plantation Others
 You Are Here:  Skip Navigation LinksHome > Articles
Monsoon 2017 and Indian Agricult

Monsoon 2017 and Indian Agriculture

Indian agriculture is mainly dependent on monsoon. As the agriculture sector is the backbone of the Indian economy and thus year to year performance of monsoon is vital for Indian agriculture particularly in kharif season. Monsoon influences the Indian agriculture in many ways. If monsoon is late, the sowing will be delayed and crop yields will be affected. If monsoon rainfall is less, drought conditions will prevail and yields are again affected. Crop establishment is also a problem across the monsoon season. Sometimes the entire crop need to Berenson. If monsoon rainfall is more, there can be flood situation and the crops will be washed away or die due to submergence.Over the years, it has been observed that there is a considerable variation in the quantum, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall across the country.  Such variations in rainfall affect production of kharif crops and subsequently on allied sectors of agriculture. Among other concerned organizations, India Meteorological Department (IMD) is also engaged in issuing different weather forecast at various spatial and temporal scales to help the farm management based on weather conditions.

In order to give an idea on the performance of monsoon, India Meteorological Department issues seasonal rainfall forecast in two stages. The first stage forecast for 2017 monsoon is issued in 18thApril and the second stage forecast will be issued in early part of June. In the first stage forecast for southwest monsoon rainfall is issued over the country as a whole and in the second stage this forecast covers seasonal rainfall for 4 months and for 4 homogeneous regions (North-West India, Central India, South Peninsula and North-East India) including monthly forecast for July & August. Since 2012, IMD has been using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model, which was developed under the Monsoon Mission project. The original coupled ocean-atmospheric model framework of CFS was adopted from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. The CFS model was further modified to provide improved rainfall forecasts over the Indian monsoon region through research efforts taken up under the Monsoon Mission project.

 The Forecast for 2017 southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is based on both the SEFS and the Monsoon Mission CFS (MMCFS). IMD’s SEFS model for the April forecast uses the following 5 predictors that require data monitored up to March. These are 1. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Gradient between North Atlantic and North Pacific December + January, 2. Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST February, 3. East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure February + March, 4. Northwest Land Surface Europe Air Temperature January, 5.Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume February + March.The forecast for 2017 southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is based on both the SEFS and the Monsoon Mission CFS (MMCFS).In 2017, quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with an error of ± 5% for the country as a whole.

Among others, El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are important parameters for monsoon rainfall in the country.  As per the press release of IMD on 18th April 2017, it has been mentioned that at present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The forecast from the MMCFS indicates weak positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the middle of the monsoon season and to persist for some more months subsequently. Positive IOD conditions are likely to be favorable for a normal or above normal monsoon. As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific particularly El Nino conditions over the Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) and positive IOD development over the equatorial Indian Ocean are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian oceans.

As per the press release from IMD on the Forecast for the 2017 Monsoon Onset over Kerala, the monsoon onset over Kerala in this year is likely to be close to the normal date. The southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on 30th May with a model error of ± 4 days.

As on Mid Day forecast of IMD issued on 22ndMay 2017, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat.5.0°N/Long. 80.0°E, Lat.8.0°N/Long.87.0°E, Lat.13.0 °N/Long.92.0° E and Lat. 16.0° N/ Long.95.0° E.

An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over South East Bay of Bengal & adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean between 1.5 Km & 3.1Km above mean sea level. With the development of this upper air cyclonic circulation, conditions are becoming favorable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest, southeast and eastcentral Bay of Bengal during next 2 to 3days.

Satellite picture of 22ndMay (13.30 IST)

Advance of Southwest Monsoon in India in 2017 as on 22nd May 2017


Though good rainfall forecast has been made initially, comparatively more information on rainfall forecast for the country and four homogeneous regions will be made available in June. In addition to the seasonal monsoon rainfall forecast, India Meteorological Department (IMD) generates weather forecasts during monsoon season as well as in other seasons also at different spatial and temporal scale i.e. short range, medium range, extended range and seasonal scales and these forecasts are used for tactical and strategic decisions in agriculture.

In Maharashtra, IMD is having good setup of observatories, number of collaborating institutes which are continuously working for giving right information in right time for farming community. Now casting in India has benefited from major developments in observational meteorology and computer-based interactive data processing and display systems in IMD.  Satellite information is also used for giving forecast.  Agromet products using remote sensing and GIS are generated and incorporated for better Agromet Advisories.

Rain / Thundershowers occurred in Northwest, East, Northeast India and in South peninsular India during pre-monsoon season. Thunderstorm activities were more dominant over East and Northeast India. Extreme events like hailstorm, heat wave, squall/gusty winds also reported during the season. Heavy / very heavy rainfall occurred in north east India during April end and first week of May.

Distribution of cumulative rainfall for premonsoon season for the period 1.3.2017 to 21.5.2017 for the country

Seasonal rainfall for the period 1.3.2017 to 18.5.2017

Before start of the monsoon rain, pre monsoon rains also utilized for land preparation, nursery bed preparation and also sowing direct seeded rice.    At present, in Northeastern region, Kerala and Karnataka already started receiving premonsoon rainfall. Based on the premonsoon rainfall, following advisories in the above mentioned states are given to the farmers. 

Agromet Advisories for Kerala, Karnataka and north east India based on pre-monsoon rainfall

v  Utilizing recent pre-monsoon showers , undertake nursery preparation / sowing viruppurice in Kerala

v  Undertake sowing of pulses like cowpea, green gram, black gram, horse gram, field bean, chilli etc. and green manure crops in Southern Dry Zone of Karnataka where sufficient rain is received.

v  In north east India, continue nursery raising for main kharif rice

Based on sowing window and actual onset of monsoon, following advisories for sowing of major kharif crops will be issued under the GraminKrishiMausamSewa project operated by the Ministry of Earth Sciences/India Meteorological Department in collaboration with State Agricultural Universities, Institutes of Indian Council of Agricultural Research and Indian Institute of Technology:

Salient AgrometAdvisory  on sowing of kharifcrops.

South India


          Transplanting of Virippu rice and planting of coconut seedlings and sowing of cow pea


Coastal Karnataka

         Continue transplanting of rice


South Interior Karnataka

         Sowing of rice,  ragi, red gram, groundnut and maize


North Interior Karnataka

         Sowing of rice, soybean, green gram, blackgram.

         In districts of North Dry Zone, sowing of green gram, sunflower, groundnut (bunch type) Bt Cotton, redgram, bajra, maizeand sesame.

         In districts of North East Dry Zone, sowing of irrigated cotton, maize, red gram, green and black gram.


Coastal Andhra Pradesh

         Planting of rainfed sugarcane. Sowing of rainfed crops viz., bajra, pulses, ragi etc., and green manurecrops.

         In East Godavari district,  sowing of rice and groundnut

         In West Godavari, districts, sowing of rice, millets, maize and red gram, black gram, green gram and cotton.



         In Anantapur and Kurnool districts, sowing of red gram, korra  and castor. In Anantapur district, land preparation and sowing of groundnut.

         In Chittoor and Kadappa Nellore districts, sowing/transplanting of rice, kharif groundnut and red gram.



         In Karimnagar, Nizamabad and Khammamdistricts(North Telangana Zone),  sowing of rice, maize, soybean, green gram and black gram, red gram and cotton.

         In Mahabubnagar,Nalgonda, Medak, Rangareddy, Khammam and Warangal districts(South Telangana Zone), nursery raising of rice  and sowing of rainfedjowar, maize green gram, black gram, red gram, soybean and cotton.


Tamil Nadu

         In the Cauvery Delta Zone, land preparation for kuruvai rice.

         In the North Eastern Zoneand South Zone, continue summer ploughing.


North East India

         In Assam, nursery rising of sali rice and sowing of pigeon pea and planting of black pepper.

         In districts of Central Bramhaputra Valley Zone of Assam,  sowing of bao rice.

         In Meghalaya, sowing ofsali/ kharifrice and sowing of groundnut and soybean.

         In Arunachal Pradesh, sowing of groundnut and soybean.

         In Nagaland, sowing of short to medium duration HYV rice varieties.

         In Manipur,  sowing of kharif rice and undertake main field preparation for transplanting and sowing of soybean.

         In Mizoram, transplanting of rice, two to three seedlings per hill and  sowing of green gram, black gram and rajma.

         In Tripura, sowing of aman rice and planting of banana.


West India



         Nursery sowing and transplanting of kharifrice and finger millet in Konkan& GoaandKolhapurregion.

         Sowing ofkharifcrops like soybean, cotton, red gram, greengram, black gram, groundnut and jowar inMadhya MaharashtraandMarathwadaand  WestVidarbha.

         InNorthMadhyaMahrashtra, sowingofkharifjowar, soybean, cotton, red gram, gram&green gram.

         Sowingofkharifrice in EastVidarbha.



         In South Gujarat Heavy Rainfall Zone, sowing of  kharif rice and ragi.

         In South Saurashtra Zone, sowing of groundnut, kharif cotton, groundnut, sesame, pigeon pea, castor.

         In South Gujarat Zone, sowing of kharifcrops like cotton, pigeon pea, sorghum etc.


East India

West Bengal

         Sowing of amanrice  and long duration rice  in Coastal Saline Zone.

         Transplanting of aus-rice in Laterite and Red Soil zone. Start sowing of dry seeded long duration rice in Coastal Saline Zone.

         Land preparation and sowing of rice in New Alluvial zone and Laterite and Red Soil zone.


         In East and South Eastern Coastal Plain Zone, sowing of kharif rice in low lands and sowing of green manure crops and sowing of pigeon pea. In uplands, land preparation planting of ginger and turmeric, sowing of maize, groundnut, sunflower, cotton etc.


         Sowing of maize

         land preparationand sowing of direct seeded upland rice  in Central and North Eastern Plateau Zone and South Eastern Plateau Zone.

         Sowing of rice.

         Landpreparationand sowing of pigeon pea


· Sowing of  medium and long duration rice and   kharif maize in North Bihar.

· Sowing of  long duration rice  North East Alluvial Zone.

· Sowing of in North Bihar .

· In South Bihar Alluvial Zone, sowing of medium and long duration rice varieties and kharif onion.


Sikkim & Andaman

· In Sikkim, transplanting of vegetables and undertake land preparation for new plantation of large cardamom.

· In Andaman,  land preparation for sowing of vegetables.



Central India


         Sowing of long duration rice varieties.

Madhya Pradesh

         In East Madhya Pradesh, sowing of rice maize, soybean, red gram and cotton.

         In West Madhya Pradesh, sowing of soybean red gram, maize, soybean, sesame, ground and maize .


North India

Uttar Pradesh

         Sowing of rice and sowing of maize in Central Plain Zone (Allahabad). Undertake sowing of arhar

         Sowing of rice in Bundelkhand Zone.

         Sowing of rice andarhar in Eastern Plain Zone.

         Sowing of riceand  maize in Central Plain Zone .


Punjab, Haryana, J AND K, Rajasthan, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Delhi

         Prepare the land for sowing of soybean and urad after proper seed treatment in Uttarakhand.

         In Semi-Arid Eastern Plain Zone of Rajasthan,  land preparation for sowing of irrigated groundnut and cotton.

         In Sub-Montane and Low Hills Sub-Tropical Zone of Himachal Pradesh,  nursery sowing of rice

         In Sub Tropical Zone of Jammu &Kashmir, land preparation and  nursery raising of early transplanted paddy.  Also, in Cold Arid Zone of Jammu and Kashmir, sowing of barley at proper spacing and at adequate moisture conditions.

         In Western Plain Zone of Punjab,  sowing of cotton, okra, spring maize and planting of sugarcane.  Also in Western Zone of Punjab, undertake nursery sowing of rice  andcucurbits, round gourd, sponge gourd, and other summer vegetables viz. okra, and cluster bean.

         In Eastern zone of Haryana, sowing of fodder crops such as guwar, maize, bajra, cluster bean.

         In Western Semi-Arid Zone of Delhi, field preparation for sowing of pigeon pea and cotton, and sowing of okra, French bean, cluster bean, baby corn.


In addition to the short and medium range weather forecast, Extended range weather forecast will also be used primarily if there will be uneven rainfall in the state for adaptation measures in terms of contingent planning.Extended forecast will be issued for performance of monsoon. Previous fortnight summary and succeeding fortnight forecast will help in selection of crop in case of extended dry spell expected beyond sowing window.

Weather forecast and Agromet Advisories are disseminated through All India Radio, Door Darshan, ETV-Marathi, Electronic and Print media etc. Initiative has been taken to telecast through new channel ‘DD Kisan’.In Maharashtra, Agromet advisories are disseminated to 21.2 million farmers through multi-channel dissemination system, SMS and IVR along with  Public Private Partnership mode (Reuter Market Light, Handygo, IFFCO Kisan Sanchar Limited (IKSL), Nokia, NABARD, Mahindra Samriddhi.  Agromet Advisories are also communicated through SMS and IVRS through “Kisan SMS” portal ( of the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

Thus under the normal monsoon rainfall forecast, it is expected that there is good prospect of kharif crop production in the country provided there is well distributed rainfall in space and time across the country. However, agromet advisories will be provided both under normal and also in situations when there is aberration of rainfall for selection of crop. Like other years, greatest challenge would be to communicate through multi-channel dissemination system to communicate the right information at the right time to the farming community and the concerned organization directly or indirectly engaged in crop production in each state.

Dr. N. Chattopadhyay

Head and Scientist OF, Agricultural Meteorology Division,

India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune-411005


Technical Research
Saturday, December 01, 2018
More Futures prices..