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Dollar index eases; limited reaction to Trump's address

Dollar index eases; limited reaction to Trump's address

Wed Jan 31 2018


The dollar inched lower against a basket of major rivals on Wednesday, showing scant reaction so far to US President Donald Trump's State of the Union address.


In his speech, Trump urged bitterly divided Republicans and Democrats to work towards compromises on immigration and infrastructure after a bruising year of partisan battles that centred on Trump's leadership.


The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last down 0.1 per cent on the day at 89.062 , staying above a three-year low around 88.43 set last week. The euro edged up 0.2 per cent to $1.2426.


BOJ bond-buying


The yen was on the backfoot, after the Bank of Japan increased its buying of medium-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in a move seen as a warning shot against further rises in bond yields.


The dollar tacked on 0.1 per cent to 108.87 yen, having risen to as high as 109.095 yen after the BOJ announcement.


The BOJ's move came after the 10-year JGB yield had risen to a 6-1/2-month high of 0.095 per cent on Tuesday. The central bank's policy guidance is to control the 10-year yield “around zero per cent''.


BOJ officials have said that any changes to bond-buying operations are fine-tuning and not meant to telegraph hints on its future policy.


Still, some market participants probably interpreted the increase in JGB buying as a signal that the central bank will stick with its monetary stimulus, said Teppei Ino, an analyst for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Singapore.


“The 10-year JGB yield had almost touched 0.1 per cent yesterday, so there was a focus on how they would try to rein in that move,” Ino said.


A reduction in the BOJ's buying of long-dated government bonds earlier this month had sparked speculation that the central bank was moving towards an eventual exit from its large stimulus, giving a lift to the yen.


Fed policy statement

The focus now shifts to the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement due later on Wednesday, and a US jobs report on Friday that will include data on non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings.


The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, and investors will be looking to its policy statement for fresh hints on the outlook for interest rates this year.


The Fed probably won't make major changes to its assessment of the economic and inflation outlook at this stage, said Roy Teo, investment strategist for LGT Bank in Singapore, adding that any material changes are likely to be “further down the road".


Since market participants already seem to be bracing for the possibility of three US interest rate hikes this year, the chances of the dollar getting a lift from the Fed's forthcoming policy statement appear low, Teo added.


Source: Reuters

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