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Kharif rice crop for ’19-20 expected to improve 2.80% in terms of area

Sat Oct 05 2019


The total Kharif rice crop for 2019-20 is expected to show marginal improvements in area by 2.80 per cent because of farmers have shifted 20-25 per cent crop area from non-basmati rice to basmati rice in Punjab on higher export demand of last year.


Receding waters in flood-affected regions of Bihar, Odisha and Karnataka have helped in recovering area under paddy cultivation, but due to the delay in sowing a lower yield by 2.58 per cent is expected. To save water for our future generations, Department of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, Government of Haryana launched a new pilot scheme.


As the arrival of monsoon delayed over a week, the withdrawal has also delayed this year. Met experts believed that the withdrawal was likely to commence only by the end of September. In June this year, the delay in the arrival of monsoon, and the subsequent impact of cyclone Vayu resulted in the worst performance of monsoon in the last five years.


However, bountiful rains in July and August made up for a substantial deficit of 33 per cent. Now, the 2019 monsoon figures are the best in the last five years with over five per cent excess rainfall. India received a total of 931.6mm rainfall from June 1 to September 30, 2019 as against the normal of 869.4mm. Heavy rains in August and September caused floods across Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala.


Based on the above conditions, the total Kharif crop production scenario for the year 2018-19 was explained as in the table given below.


The scheme is for replacement of paddy by Maize and other crops in seven dark zone brocks with a target to diversify around 50,000 hectare area from this season. A smaller crop last year pushed India to import maize after a gap of two years. The acreage is expected to increase by 7.17 per cent this year, but still we are expecting a 5.75 per cent lower crop size because of the widespread fall army worm infestation which is already showing signs of aggravations. Area and production of jowar is expected to fall by 4.79 per cent and 0.61 per cent, respectively and bajra area is expected to increase by 2.47 per cent despite decline in production by 4.69 per cent.


In the pulses sector, acreages under tur and Urad exceeded last year’s levels after widespread rains in early August boosted the sowing, the government has begun to dispose of stocks. Arhar area is expected to increase by 1.69 per cent, and the production is expected to rise significantly by 21.27 per cent. Urad production is expected to be low by 0.16 per cent. We expect the area under moong to increase by 4.66 per cent whereas the production is expected sharply lower by 17.23 per cent mainly due to flooding of fields in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan.


In oilseeds, castor area is expected to increase by 5.32 per cent and likely to see significant increase in production by 21.07 per cent due to good prices of castor in domestic mandis. The decline in production is expected to the tune of 8.90 per cent and 2.32 per cent for sesamum and sunflower, respectively, and marginally improvement is expected in groundnut and niger seed by 4.93 per cent and 4.93 per cent, respectively.


Soybean acreage expected to improve by 5.68 per cent, but the production is expected significantly lowered by 17.72 per cent due to heavy rains and widespread flooding in major growing areas, which has diminished hope of normal crop in the major soybean growing regions.


In this current monsoon season, the cash crop section is likely to show an overall neutral scenario as area for sugarcane is expected up by 14.32 per cent, but the decline in production by 5.60 per cent because of farmers from major sugarcane growing belts are shifted sugarcane crop to other crop as government gives incentives to encourage farmers to grow crops other than sugar cane.


Among the potential recommendations is an incentive of Rs 6,000 an acre for farmers who stop growing sugarcane, especially in the major sugarcane growing states such as Uttar Pradesh. Cotton area and production is expected up by 4.32 per cent and 9.99 per cent, respectively.



Technical Research
Monday, February 17, 2020
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