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IGC raises forecast for 2019-20 world corn crop

Mon Jan 27 2020


The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised its forecast for global corn (maize) production in the 2019/20 season, driven mainly by upward revisions for China and the United States.


In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body increased its global corn crop forecast by 8 million tonnes to 1.111 billion tonnes, still below the previous season's 1.129 billion tonnes.


China's 2019/20 crop was estimated at 260.8 million tonnes up from a previous projection of 255.4 million tonnes and now above the 2018/19 season's 257.3 million tonnes.


US corn production was upwardly revised to 347.8 million tonnes, from 344.7 million tonnes, but was still expected to show a third successive annual decline from the record 2016/17 harvest of 384.8 million tonnes.


Global corn stocks at the end of the 2019/20 season were forecast at 283 million tonnes, also showing a third successive annual decline after peaking at 367 million tonnes in 2016/17.


The council trimmed its forecast for 2019/20 world wheat production by 1 million tonnes to 761 million tonnes, still well above the previous season's 733 million tonnes, with carryover stocks projected to rise.


The IGC also forecast the wheat area for the 2020/21 season at 220 million hectares, up 1% year on year.


“Preliminary supply and demand projections (for 2020/21) point to a slightly larger global wheat harvest and, while consumption growth is assumed, there could be another stock accumulation at the end of the season," the IGC said.


Global soyabean production in 2019/20 was seen at 342 million tonnes, up from the 341 million tonnes forecast previously but well below the previous season's record of 361 million tonnes.


“Inventories (on soyabeans) are expected to tighten sharply on a heavily reduced US crop," the IGC said, forecasting 2019/20 carryover stocks at 36 million tonnes, sharply down from 54 million tonnes a year earlier.



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